Food insecurity deepens across Africa in the wake of Covid-19
More than half of Africa’s population already faces food insecurity – a figure that could grow at unprecedented rates in the aftermath of Covid-19 according to a new Kearney report.
Against the backdrop of a global pandemic, Kearney’s Global Business Policy Council (GBPC) analysed a range of data sources – G7, OPEC, WHO and more – to deliver an economic outlook report for the next half a decade. In focus is food insecurity – expected to go from bad to worse in the next five years.
Several factors are at play here. Supply chains have been disrupted and exports have been cut – giving rise to stockpiling, price increases and shortages across the world. The World Food Programme estimates that the number of people facing food security has more than doubled – from 130 million in 2019 to over 260 million in 2020.
Already plagued with poverty and economic stagnation, emerging economies risk bearing the brunt of this trend. “In the next five years, hunger will plague emerging markets, but embattled governments will find reducing hunger challenging as debt levels surge, currencies weaken, commodity prices remain low, and international institutions find themselves stretched thin,” warned Paul Laudicina, Founder of Kearney’s Global Business Policy Council.
Within the emerging markets landscape, Africa as a region is set to feel disproportionate effects of this scenario. The continent already clocks a higher food security ratio in the world – the only region where more than half the population is food insecure. Latin America is a distant second with a still foreboding 30% ratio, while Asia follows with just over 20%.
The mounting challenge
According to Kearney, things are only expected to get worse in Africa and other vulnerable regions, as food prices make a steep climb and global humanitarian aid dries up owing to a recession. All this while food demand in the region continues its steady climb. A vicious cycle ensues: where poor economic conditions cause a food crisis, which in turn causes further disruption to the economy.
Kearney’s report points to stunting – a human condition where growth is hindered due to lack of nutrition, with long-term implications on physical and cognitive abilities well into adulthood. “In some parts of Africa and Asia, the combined productivity and economic losses from stunting can reach as high as 11 percent of GDP,” noted Laudicina.
The firm also points to research from global think tank Chatham House, which has revealed that lost productivity resulting from malnutrition can deliver a $850 billion hit to emerging economies. Even for larger, more food-secure markets in Africa, such a scenario is far from sustainable.
Global repercussions
The outlook is grave in Africa, and while far from comparable in humanitarian or economic scale there are likely to be food security issues in advanced markets as well. According to Kearney, food prices in the US had jumped up 5% in May last year. By June, nearly 30% of US households with children were food insecure.
“Advanced economies are still at risk, as food insecurity will still rise in a recession, particularly if governments cut programs such as increased unemployment benefits. Such dynamics not only contribute to social tensions but also exacerbate the health issues that accompany food insecurity such as obesity and stunting,” said Erik Peterson, Partner & Managing Director at Kearney.
Hunger is likely to be among the chief policy challenges worldwide in the near future. Indeed, it was already gaining ground before the pandemic. The number of people experiencing hunger around the world jumped from 795 million in 2015 to 820 million in 2018 – marking well over 11% of the world’s population.
